SME Deal Compass Frameworks | Buying Steady Cash-Flow SMEs in PL | ETA

Profit vs Cash

Written by Alex Tsishuk | Oct 22, 2025 1:49:04 PM

First 48 Hours: Profit vs Cash (ETA Diligence Lens)

When you evaluate an SME acquisition, the P&L shows profit. But profit on paper and cash in the bank are not the same thing. In the first 48 hours of screening, three simple checks tell you whether EBITDA will actually convert to cash you can use—or stay trapped in the business.

The takeaway in one line

Buyers purchase cash flow, not accounting profit. The fastest way to spot trouble is to look at customer payment terms, working capital tied up in inventory or WIP, and recurring capital expenditure before you model anything.

Why this matters (the operator's lens)

ETA diligence is not about building perfect models. It's about identifying real operational constraints fast. You want to know: after the deal closes, will there be cash to service debt, reinvest in the team, and handle surprises?

Companies that show strong EBITDA margins but poor cash conversion have structural problems you inherit. The sooner you see them, the sooner you can walk away—or negotiate the right price and reserves.

The three checks (use these in week one)

1. Customer payment terms (DSO)

Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) measures how long it takes customers to pay you. A company with 20% EBITDA margin looks strong on paper. But if customers pay in 90 days instead of 30, you're financing their operations with your working capital.

What to check:

  • Average DSO from the trailing twelve months (AR ÷ daily revenue)
  • Aging schedule: what percentage is over 60 days?
  • Collection discipline: written terms, follow-up process, escalation

Red flags:

  • DSO rising over time without explanation
  • Large concentration in slow-paying customers
  • No formal collection process ("the owner handles it")

Operator action: After close, tighten invoicing (same-week delivery-to-invoice), introduce clear payment terms, and track weekly. Cutting DSO from 60 to 35 days can free up meaningful cash without growing revenue.

2. Inventory and work-in-progress (WIP)

Inventory on the balance sheet is frozen cash. Materials sitting in the warehouse or projects half-finished are assets in the books, but they don't pay your team or service debt.

What to check:

  • Inventory turnover: Cost of Goods Sold ÷ average inventory
  • WIP aging: how long does a project sit between start and billing?
  • Obsolescence: dead stock, expired materials, abandoned projects

Red flags:

  • Inventory turnover slowing year-over-year
  • High WIP balances with no clear completion timeline
  • Owner says "we need stock for big orders," but no orders materialize

Operator action: Institute job-to-cash workflow mapping. Mark clear completion and invoicing milestones. Review slow-moving inventory monthly and write off dead stock. Better turnover = better cash.

3. Recurring capital expenditure (CapEx)

A company can be profitable on the P&L but still cash-poor if it needs constant investment in equipment, vehicles, or infrastructure. Maintenance CapEx is a real cost that P&L doesn't fully capture—and you need to fund it.

What to check:

  • Historical CapEx: average over the last 3–5 years
  • Asset age and replacement cycles
  • Planned upgrades or deferred maintenance

Red flags:

  • CapEx spiking irregularly with no clear pattern
  • Aging fleet or equipment with no replacement plan
  • Owner says "one-time investment," but it happens every year

Operator action: Separate maintenance CapEx (keep the lights on) from growth CapEx (expand capacity). Model free cash flow as EBITDA minus maintenance CapEx minus normalized working-capital swings. Only growth CapEx is discretionary.

How this fits into the 48-hour screen

These three checks don't require a full Quality of Earnings report. You can run them from basic financials and a short call with the owner or CFO. They give you an early read on whether the business generates usable cash or just accounting profit.

If DSO is high, inventory turns slowly, and CapEx is constant, you're buying a business that looks profitable but operates on tight cash. You'll spend your first year fixing working capital instead of growing. Better to know now.

A simple vignette (anonymous, typical)

A regional services firm showed steady 18% EBITDA over three years. Revenue was stable, customers were loyal, and the team was solid. On paper, a clean target.

First 48-hour checks revealed:

  • DSO had drifted from 40 to 75 days (no process change, just lax follow-up)
  • Inventory turnover dropped by 30% (materials ordered "just in case")
  • Annual CapEx averaged 60% of reported EBITDA (vehicles, tools, software)

Result: free cash flow was less than half of EBITDA. The business worked, but it couldn't fund growth or returns without external capital. We passed.

Translation: These levers are fixable, but only if you see them early and price accordingly. Don't assume EBITDA = cash.

The operator's playbook (post-close, first 90 days)

Once you own the business, these three areas are your first operating priorities:

DSO discipline:

  • Same-week invoicing after job completion
  • Clear payment terms communicated upfront
  • Weekly AR review and follow-up calls
  • Escalation path for overdue accounts

Working capital hygiene:

  • Job-to-cash workflow map (start → milestone → invoice → payment)
  • Monthly inventory review (slow movers, obsolescence)
  • WIP aging tracker with completion targets

CapEx planning:

  • Separate maintenance from growth spending
  • Build a 3-year asset replacement schedule
  • Defer non-essential projects until cash stabilizes

These aren't "nice to have." They're the foundation of cash generation. Customers feel the improvement (faster invoices, clearer process), and your balance sheet reflects it (lower AR, better turnover, predictable CapEx).

Why I use this lens

In Poland and across the EU, many SMEs are operationally sound but financially under-managed. Founders run the business day-to-day and trust their accountant for year-end reports. Nobody tracks DSO weekly or models free cash flow.

That gap is the operator's opportunity. Bring in simple discipline—document workflows, measure the right metrics, tighten the cash cycle—and the business works better without heroics. That's compounding value through execution, not financial engineering.

If you're reading this as an investor or a seller

Investors: These three checks—DSO, working capital turnover, and recurring CapEx—are the fastest way to stress-test whether EBITDA converts to distributable cash. They're also the clearest post-close value-creation levers. If an operator can articulate their 90-day plan to improve these metrics, you're looking at disciplined execution.

Owners considering a sale: Buyers pay more for businesses that generate clean cash. If your DSO is under control, inventory turns efficiently, and CapEx is predictable, you are the kind of company operators look for. Small improvements before going to market—tightening collections, clearing dead stock, documenting asset schedules—can materially improve your valuation.

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